فصلنامه دانش پیشگیری و مدیریت بحران
سال دوازدهم شماره 3 (پیاپی 45، پاییز 1401)

Landslide susceptibility zoning using different methods is one of the landslide management strategies. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the landslides susceptibility in the Bar watershed in Khorasan Razavi province using the support vector machine (SVM) algorithm.

First, the landslide layer of the area was corrected through field visits and Google Earth satellite imagery. Finally, 73 landslides were identified and the layer related to these landslides was prepared in GIS environment. Of these landslides, 70% were used for model training and the remaining 30% for modeling validation. Then, according to the review of extensive sources and expert opinions, 16 factors affecting the occurrence of landslides in the study area were identified and layers related to these parameters were prepared. Then, using the SVM algorithm in ModEco software environment, a ground sensitivity map was prepared and finally this map was divided into five classes with very high, high, medium, low and very low sensitivity. Finally, the performance of this algorithm was evaluated using the ROC curve.

Based on the results, the area under curve (AUC) was obtained using training data (0.87) and validation data (0.85). Therefore, SVM algorithm has a very good performance to evaluate landslide sensitivity in the study area. Also, model evaluation based on kappa index showed that slope length (LS) and slope indices have the greatest impact on slope instability in this region. The results of sensitivity zoning also showed that 27.6% of the lands in the region, which were mainly located in the west and northwest of the basin, were in the class with high and very high sensitivity.

Based on the results obtained in the model training and validation stage, indicates that the SVM algorithm is approved in terms of accuracy and validity of modeling. As a result, the landslide susceptibility map obtained in the studied area can be used as a management tool as a cornerstone of landslide research in critical times, land use planning, damage reduction and landslide risks.

Reducing the consequences of natural hazards at the community level requires the development of social responsibility to prevent the risk of new disasters. Therefore, the purpose of this research is to firstly identify the indicators of social responsibility in the management of reducing natural hazards and then determine the action priorities, with an interpretive structural approach.

The current research method is descriptive-survey and practical in terms of purpose. The research data was collected in the field and in a mixed (qualitative and quantitative) way. The statistical population in the qualitative section included all crisis management experts and experts, 18 of whom were selected non-randomly and purposefully. The statistical population in the quantitative part, including managers and experts of the crisis management organization and general crisis administrations of the provinces, (297 people) and national and provincial managers and experts of cooperating organizations and institutions and members of the Supreme Crisis Management Council, (361 people) in total, equal to There were 658 people, based on the table of Karjesi and Morgan and using Cochran's formula and simple random sampling, 248 people were selected as a sample. The tool of data collection was a researcher-made questionnaire with 39 questions of indicators of social responsibility in the management of reducing natural hazards and a structured self-interaction form. The content validity of the questionnaire was confirmed by 10 university management professors and its reliability was confirmed by Cronbach's alpha test (α=0.83). Interpretive structural modeling technique was used to level the factors.

The findings showed that there are 39 indicators in the form of 17 components in social responsibility in natural risk reduction management and the components were placed in seven levels. Organizational culture, environmental perception and organizational structure are at the first level, and the support of senior managers and moral belief are at the lowest level.

The obtained results confirm that the organizational and economic support as well as the promotion of moral belief will facilitate the achievement of other components and the development of social responsibility in the management of reducing natural hazards.

Nowadays, due to the increase in population and climate change, the probability of natural disasters such as floods and earthquakes are increasing. Therefore, the need for proper planning to reduce human and financial losses is felt more and more. Locating camps and   medical service centers is one of the measures that should be taken into account to deal with disaster conditions. In this research, camps and medical service centers’ locations have been investigated. According to the historical background of the city of Rudbar in the occurrence of a big earthquake and the location of this city on the active fault of Rudbar, this city was chosen for a case study.

Suitable places for the construction of camps and medical service centers were considered from previous researches and the opinion of the experts of the Center for Research and Resilience in Disasters and to rank the options, the compromise mixed solution method has been used.

At first, with the consultation of the experts of the Center for Research and Resilience in Disasters and Disasters and using previous researches, appropriate criteria were determined for prioritizing the candidate places for the construction of medical service centers and camps. Then, according to these criteria, the candidate places were first prioritized to determine the suitable place for the construction of medical service centers, according to the population of Rudbar city, 5 places were selected for the construction of medical service centers, and the other places were selected for the construction of the camp according to the appropriate criteria. In order to identify a suitable place for the construction of the camp, they were prioritized again. Hosp itals and schools are more suitable places to build medical service centers and schools and mosques are more suitable places to build camps.

The results show that the criteria of not being located on the fault, the presence of suitable infrastructure, and the distance from the disaster points are important criteria for choosing a medical service center, and criteria not being located on the fault, the presence of suitable infrastructure, and the distance from the medical service centers are important criteria for building a camp.

Background & Objects: 

Many goals can be imagined for this project, but achieving all these goals is a long and time-consuming task, and it is not possible to achieve all of them in one project, but in general, the main goal of the project is to find a plan that is suitable for temporary housing. can have the most efficiency for the accident victims while causing the least damage to the environment, some of these efficiencies are as follows: 1- Using recycled materials or materials with a very long life 2- Lightweight with easy packaging and transportation 3-quick to install, cheap and economical so that it is cost-effective for workers.

This study is a functional research by using descriptive-analytic method. Due to necessity, this article is a combination of library studies including books, treatises and articles, internet searches, conducting interviews with experts and victims of past accidents, receiving existing data and site visits. It has been tried to present an efficient plan in accordance with the set goals while studying the existing indicators and criteria and examining the samples of prefabricated shelters and past experiences.

One of the most important challenges after disasters is the design of a suitable model for temporary accommodation during the organizing period. So far, many structures have been designed as temporary shelters and provided to the victims of the accident; But in most cases, these structures do not meet the needs of users and also do not have the necessary resistance to changing weather conditions. Even in many cases, it has been seen that the victims of the accident abandoned the built houses and built a new house for themselves with local materials that fit their lifestyle. Despite all the initiatives presented in the category of post-disaster housing, the progress made is small compared to post-disaster reconstruction issues. Therefore, it is necessary to present an effective plan by considering the design criteria of temporary accommodation and paying attention to the needs of the victims of the accident.

Prefabricated construction due to its high speed, less error, and the lack of need for skilled personnel in the installation, can help the crisis management. The participation of the accident victims can make a big impact on their mental rehabilitation. The proposed design can be stored and produced in the form of small packages before the crisis. The use of light materials with high durability is important because of the uncertainty of the completion of the temporary settlement period. Low cost, a different appearance compared to the conex, the ability to use sustainable energy and its usability before (emergency accommodation) and after (permanent) temporary accommodation are the advantages of this plan.

Safety and security against threats is one of the most basic principles in order to achieve the desired standards of urban comfort, and attention to the passive defense of cities against external threats has always been considered since the beginning of the formation of cities. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to provide management strategies to reduce the existing risk and city management in times of crisis with a passive defense approach.

The method used in this research is applied based on the purpose and quantitative in terms of method. In this research, first, the vulnerability of each asset against physical and non-physical threats is determined, and using the obtained results, the total vulnerability index is also determined, and its spatial distribution is analyzed in all three categories. In the next step, management strategies were determined and prioritized using the matrix of internal and external factors.

The results showed that defensive strategies are the best possible strategies for the city of Bojnurd. Based on the results, seven six were determined as the main strategies to reduce the vulnerability of Bojnurd city, which are the first and seventh strategies in order of priority: Strengthening land transportation infrastructure in order to strengthen tourism; and Diversifying the water supply sources of the city or strengthening the water safety of Shirin Dareh dam.

Based on the results of this research, it can be said that many assets of Bojnurd city, especially assets that a large part of the population depends on their services, are under threat. Also, in terms of spatial distribution, the northern area of the city had the highest level of vulnerability, and the highest density of assets of city are also located in this area, and this geographical compatibility has aggravated the vulnerability of the city.

The covid-19 pandemic, one of the complex situations with high uncertainty in decision-making, has faced a crisis in socio-economic systems for more than two years. Municipalities are considered as key crisis management organizations due to the wide variety of services they provide to citizens. The current research, by designing a soft system intervention, has developed the crisis management system of the Tehran municipality for the covid-19 pandemic by using the combined approach of soft systems and social network analysis.

First, the measures of crisis management of Tehran municipality were investigated and the actors and knowledge axes of crisis management of Tehran municipality were identified. In order to analyze the power position of actors in the cooperation network; The two-dimensional matrix of actors-actions of formation and cooperation network of crisis management was analyzed based on the indicators of degree centrality and betweenness centrality. Next, a combination of actors was selected and based on the design of a soft system intervention, the situation of the problem was analyzed and an rich picture of the problem was drawn. Then, according to Parsons' theory of social systems, the system was analyzed from political and structural, economic, social, cultural, and legal perspectives, and based on the CATWOE analysis, a relatively agreed root definition was considered, and the components of the ideal system according to the analysis The stages of crisis management including the ideal system before the crisis, during the crisis and after the crisis were identified and the development model of the Covid-19 pandemic management system was designed.

In general, the findings indicate that the cooperation network of activists has a high density and cohesion, however, it seems that the position of some activists needs to strengthen the position of power in the crisis management structure. In comparing the current system and the ideal system of pandemic crisis management, the solutions have been presented according to the analysis of crisis management stages, including the targeted activities of developing the system before the crisis, during the crisis and after the crisis agreed upon by the participation of key actors.

Considering that the performance of crisis management during a pandemic is highly dependent on the level of preparedness before the crisis, it is expected that according to the components of the ideal system before the crisis and during the pandemic and targeted activities The development of the system on how to prepare and respond to similar crises in the future should be considered by city managers and crisis management policy makers in Tehran. In addition, on the eve of the recovery stage after the corona pandemic crisis, the attention of city managers to maintain a critical and rethinking position of urban management experiences in the covid-19 pandemic is more important than ever.

Our country is one of the most vulnerable countries in terms of suffering natural disasters in such a way that during the 20th century, the statistics of human and material losses resulting from incidents have placed Iran among the top ten countries in the world in terms of disaster and vulnerability; on the other hand, considering the role of the media in the representation era or the age of media in shaping our understanding and imagination of disasters in today's world, one of the important dimensions of disasters is to know how visual, audio and virtual media work during a disaster. Therefore, without knowing the performance of the mass media, we cannot practically know many aspects of the disasters and society's response to it at the national and international level. The media not only informs, encourages and persuades the society to provide relief and mobilize facilities when a disaster occurs but also they are very effective in the renewal and revival of the society and the changes that occur in the beliefs, behaviors and lifestyles of the members of the society before, during and after it.

In this research, it has been tried to determine the prioritization and effect of Persian language satellite and television networks on the lifestyle after the Corona crisis with a mathematical model of rough data envelopment analysis. This research is an applied study and its method is case-based and in order to measure the before mentioned Channels, field and library studies were conducted on the variables and indicators of lifestyle after Corona, at first; and after reviewing the articles, in order to calculate the research indicators, a guided interview was conducted with experts in this field who had at least 10 years of experience in the fields of lifestyle, media and culture.

The findings of this research indicate that MANOTO Channel has had the greatest impact on the people's lifestyles after the Corona disaster and after that the NASIM and GEM channel are in the second and third places.

According to the ranking of the channels, it is important that the lack of actions of the domestic channels, such as lack of quick, accurate and clear information and concealment of facts and statistics, gives the opportunity to the satellite channels and reduces their social capitals; on the other hand, in the case of producing high-quality programs that suit the audience's taste, such as entertainment and family programs in NASIM channel provides the possibility of competition and influence for domestic channels.